The alternative future scenario method of forecasting demand has led to a drastic reduction in the scale and ambition for the GDA Transport Strategy and is built on a number of faulty assumptions:
- 10% and 25% reduction in journeys for education at 2nd and 3rd level respectively.
- A shift to local, convenience shopping for groceries.
The Dept of Education have not announced any plans to shift second level education to a model involving any element of distance learning, nor have they indicated an intention to do so. In fact, the omicron wave has only demonstrated their determination to continue with in-class teaching as this pandemic unfolds.
Kantar figures for 2021 show that there was a dramatic shift away from local convenience retailers in the groceries space as soon as pandemic restrictions were eased. Market share by the large destination retailers such as Dunnes and Tesco have recovered to pre-pandemic levels and this suggests that the shift to local convenience shopping has not materialised on a permanent basis.
Why has this revised strategy not been stress-tested against the old demand model to determine if current plans hold up in a scenario where we see a return to pre-pandemic norms? At the very least, this new demand model should be accompanied by another review of this strategy document sooner than 2028, given that this alternative demand model looks increasingly unlikely to be an accurate picture of future transport demand in Dublin